Data Decoded! The "50,000 Green Card Quota Shift" Behind the Bans of 75 Countries

At the beginning of 2026, a report from Newsweek sparked widespread discussion in the immigration circle.

American immigration attorneys pointed out: If the temporary suspension of immigration visas from certain countries continues to be enforced, a substantial number of family-based green cards may go unissued in this fiscal year. It is estimated that about 50,000 family-based green cards may be transferred to the employment-based category in the next fiscal year.

This is based on a logical deduction of the U.S. immigration law quota structure and the “spillover mechanism.”

The Underlying Logic of U.S. Green Card Quotas

The U.S. sets statutory immigration quotas for each fiscal year (October 1 — September 30 of the following year).

It is mainly divided into two systems:

• Family-based immigration (FB category): The annual statutory quota baseline is approximately 226,000;

• Employment-based immigration (EB category): The annual statutory quota baseline is approximately 140,000.

These 140,000 are not fixed. What truly determines the fluctuation of employment-based immigration supply is the “spillover rule.”

The U.S. immigration law stipulates: If the family-based immigration quota is not fully utilized in a fiscal year, the remaining numbers are automatically transferred to the employment-based category in the next fiscal year. This is the so-called Spillover mechanism.

Why Might There Be a “50,000 Spillover”?

This expectation arises from the U.S. government's issuance of the “75 Country Ban.” This policy suspends the processing and issuance of immigration visas (i.e., green cards) for citizens from 75 countries. The most impacted is the issuance of family-based immigration visas.

Based on logic from public reports:

• By referencing the data of 2024, countries affected by the ban obtained approximately 67,000 green cards in total

• The ban was implemented after the first quarter of the 2026 fiscal year (October to December 2025)

• About 17,000 have been issued

• Approximately 50,000 remain unissued

If the ban persists until the end of the fiscal year, these quotas will automatically enter the total employment-based immigration quota for the 2027 fiscal year, which is the source of the “potential 50,000 employment-based immigration increase.”

What Does This Mean for Chinese Applicants?

Based on quota structure calculations: if approximately 50,000 additional employment-based green cards are added, EB-5 could potentially receive more than 3,000.

For countries with high demand for visas like China, this could mean a temporary relief in backlog pressure.

However, three points must be emphasized: the spillover depends on the duration of the ban, it occurs in the “next fiscal year,” and U.S. immigration policy remains uncertain. WorldTradeTong will continue to closely monitor and share any new developments at the earliest opportunity.

Currently, It's a Window Period for U.S. Immigration Planning

If you intend to immigrate to the U.S., be sure to grasp the “bonus window period.” We are now at a time when policy and quota structures might release phased benefits, making this a critical moment to plan ahead and secure your quota. Three key advantages under the new EB-5 law:

• Reserved visa categories: Rural projects enjoy independent quotas, currently “no backlogs” and have priority processing rights.

• Dual filing mechanism: Simultaneously file the I-526E immigration application and I-485 status adjustment application to obtain work cards and re-entry permits early, easing status transition pressure.

• Grandfather Clause protection: Applications submitted before September 30, 2026, can lock in under the current legal framework, avoiding risks of future policy changes.